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Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Not a day goes by without a new LLM model hitting the market, each claiming to outperform the rest on some benchmark leaderboard. But these self-reported scores often deserve scepticism. Much like marking your own homework, these evaluations can be misleading. For starters, many benchmark datasets – or even their answers – might appear in […]
Summary Inference-time scaling is the New Frontier: AI progress is shifting to focus more on inference-time scaling techniques that refine responses after initial training. Deeper Reasoning, Longer Waits: Enabling models to break complex tasks into smaller steps during inference results in longer waiting times but better responses. Better Cost-Outcome Alignment: This approach better aligns cost […]
Assessing and Alleviating State Anxiety in LLMs: Finds that trauma prompts can change the ‘state’ anxiety of LLMs, while relaxation ones reduce anxiety! Structured Outputs Enable General-Purpose LLMs to Be Medical Experts: The paper does away with fine-tuning an LLM on medical data and instead introduces a seven-step cognitive process (chain-of-thought) to answer questions. E.g., […]
Economics & Growth
Macro Hive
Key Events For Insights Into Market Pricing and Forecasts Around Key Events, Visit Our NEW Event Monitor! G10 Event Monitor Watch for our latest US CPI forecast next Friday ahead of its release on Tuesday 12 August. We also release our weekly Initial Jobless Claims forecast on Tuesday, two days before its release on Thursday 7 […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models’ performance was flat over the past week (equities +0.4%, rates +0.1%, and FX -0.4%). Momentum models have registered negative returns across all three asset classes over the past three months […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Equity and bond market pricing of the US economic outlook could only be consistent under the ‘Goldilocks’ economic conditions prevailing during 2022-24’s immigration surge. But immigration has collapsed, which is likely to cause ‘stagflation-lite’ economic conditions. Soft private sector demand due to weak confidence will dampen inflationary pressures in 2025. The fiscal stimulus Congress […]
Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank.
Brad Setser is the Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. His expertise includes global trade and capital flows, financial vulnerability analysis, and sovereign debt restructuring.
George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute and professor emeritus of economics at the University of Georgia. He is the author of numerous books.
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